Final results are that republicans gained Missouri, New Hampshire, and Vermont while losing North Carolina for a net gain of 2 governors. This means my prediction 2 months before the election was correct for 10 out of 12 of the governors (missed Missouri and North Carolina).
The results for the 2016 Governor races are that the Republicans gained Vermont, New Hampshire, and Missouri (still unknown if Republicans held North Carolina).
On September 19 (President 2016 Tab), I forecast that: “Governors: Republicans will gain New Hampshire and Vermont, while holding North Carolina and Indiana, for a net gain of 2 governors (33 total).” With Republicans picking up Missouri, this means I got 10/11 Governors right (North Carolina still not determined). I take some pride in calling West Virginia (Democrat Hold) and Vermont (Republican Gain) correctly since a number of analysts did not think a Republican could win in Vermont or a Democrat could win in West Virginia. Chris Sununu (R)’s numbers have improved, moving New Hampshire from lean democrat to lean republican.
Bill Bryant’s (R) numbers have decreased in Washington, moving the race form lean to likely democrat.
Eric Greitn’s (R) numbers have improved in Missouri, moving the race from lean democrat to tossup. Bud Pierce’s (R) numbers have improved in Oregon, moving the race from lean democrat to tossup. Phil Scott’s (R) numbers have improved in Vermont, moving the race from tossup to lean republican Colin Van Ostern (D)’s numbers have improved in New Hampshire, John Gregg (D)’s numbers have improved in Indiana, Bud Pierce (R)’s numbers have dropped in Oregon, and Bill Cole’s numbers have dropped in West Virginia, moving all 4 governor races from tossup to lean democrat.
Polls are now out in Vermont and Montana, placing both races at tossup (Vermont previously forecasted as lean republican and Montana as likely democrat). NH: Chris Sununu’s (R) numbers have dropped, moving the race from lean republican to tossup.
Oregon: Bud Pierce’s (R) numbers have improved, moving the race from likely democrat to tossup. North Carolina: Incumbent Governor Pat McCrory (R)’s numbers have improved, moving the race from lean democrat to tossup. Delaware moves from likely to solid democrat (actually have polling data and congressman John Carney (D) has a large lead over state senator Colin Bonini (R)).
Bud Pierce's (R) numbers have dropped in Oregon, moving the race from lean to likely democrat. Chris Sununu's (R) numbers have dropped in New Hampshire, moving the race from likely to lean republican. Roy Cooper's (D) numbers have improved in North Carolina, moving the race from tossup to lean democrat. John Gregg's (D) numbers have dropped in Indiana, moving the race from lean democrat to tossup. Bill Cole's (R) numbers have improved in West Virginia, moving the race from lean democrat to tossup. The challengers to the incumbent governors in Oregon and North Carolina have dropped in recent polling.
Oregon moves from tossup to lean democrat. North Carolina moves from lean democrat to tossup. With the primaries now over in New Hampshire, Chris Sununu (R) has a large lead over Colin Van Ostern (D), moving the race from lean to likely republican. John Gregg (D) (former nominee for Governor of Indiana in 2012) is now leading against Lieutenant Governor Eric Holcomb (R). Indiana moves from tossup to lean democrat.
Missouri Attorney General Chris Koster (D) is only showing a small lead over Eric Greitens (R). Missouri moves from likely to lean democrat. |