The day before the 2020 elections, Dr. Mike correctly forecast 44/46 states (Incumbent President Donald Trump (R) did not end up taking the electoral votes for Arizona and Georgia). Former Vice President Joseph Biden (D) ended up taking the electoral votes of the 4 states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada) that Dr. Mike forecast as tossup.
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The day before the 2020 elections, Dr. Mike correctly forecast 42/42 states. 8 states remain to be called, of which Dr. Mike forecast 4 as tossup, 3 as lean republican, and 1 (Alaska) as solid republican. Incumbent President Donald Trump (D) currently leads in Alaska 62.9-33.0 with 50% of the votes counted.
Dr. Mike correctly forecast 4 of the 5 Congressional District Electoral Votes (2 in Maine and 2 of the 3 in Nebraska). Former Vice President Jospeh Biden (D) won the 1 Electoral Vote for Nebraska 2 as the polls predicted. However, those same polls showed Biden winning Nebraska 1 and Nebraska 3 (and therefore Nebraska at large), which is blatantly ridiculous. Dr. Mike correctly forecast 4 of the 5 Nebraska Electoral Votes based on the 2016 election returns, and did not rely on the 2020 Nebraska polls which only got 1 of the 5 right. Incumbent President Donald Trump (R) leads former Vice President Joseph Biden (D) in Iowa by 7, moving the state from lean to likely republican.
Probable Outcome: 260-312 Republican Electoral Votes Median Outcome: 286 Republican Electoral Votes, 252 Democratic Former Vice President Biden (D) leads in Minnesota by 3, moving the state back to lean democrat from tossup.
Incumbent President Donald Trump (R) leads in North Carolina by 3, moving the state back to lean republican from tossup. Probable Outcome: 260-312 Republican Electoral Votes Median Outcome: 286 Republican Electoral Votes, 252 Democratic With more polling data from Oregon, Former Vice President Biden (D) leads in the state by 17, moving it from likely to solid democrat.
Biden’s (D) polls have also improved in Colorado, Georgia, New Hampshire, and North Carolina: Georgia moves from likely to lean republican. North Carolina moves from lean republican to tossup. New Hampshire moves from tossup to lean democrat. Colorado moves from lean to likely democrat. Incumbent President Donald Trump’s (R) poll numbers have improved in Arizona, Nevada, and the 2nd Maine congressional district: Nevada moves from lean democrat to tossup. Arizona moves from tossup to lean republican. Maine’s 2nd congressional district moves from tossup to likely republican. Probable Outcome: 245-322 Republican Electoral Votes Median Outcome: 283.5 Republican Electoral Votes, 254.5 Democratic Former Vice President Joseph Biden (D) leads by 2 in Maine's second congressional district, Maine 2 moves from lean republican to tossup.
Incumbent President Donald Trump (R) leads by 4 in Florida, Florida moves from tossup to lean republican. Probable Outcome: 248-320 Republican Electoral Votes Median Outcome: 284 Republican Electoral Votes, 254 Democratic Former Vice President Jospeh Biden (D) is now tied in Minnesota and leads in Pennsylvania by 3, Minnesota and Pennsylvania move from lean democrat to tossup.
Incumbent President Donald Trump (R) now leads Biden (D) in Iowa and Ohio by 3, Iowa and Ohio move from tossup to lean republican. Trump (R) now leads Biden (D) in Texas by 6, Texas moves from lean to likely republican. Probable Outcome: 220-320 Republican Electoral Votes Median Outcome: 270 Republican Electoral Votes, 268 Democratic Former Vice President and Senator Jospeh Biden (D)’s poll numbers have improved in a number of states against Incumbent President Donald Trump (R):
Missouri and South Carolina move from solid to likely republican. Texas moves from likely to lean republican. Iowa moves from likely republican to tossup. Ohio moves from lean republican to tossup. Pennsylvania moves from tossup to lean democrat. Virginia moves from lean to likely democrat. Probable Outcome: 196-290 Republican Electoral Votes Median Outcome: 243 Republican Electoral Votes, 295 Democratic Incumbent President Donald Trump (R)'s lead in Texas over former Vice President and Senator Joseph Biden (D) has grown to 6, moving the state from lean to likely republican.
Biden's (D) lead over Trump (R) in Minnesota has shrunk to 5, moving the state from likely to lean democrat. Probable Outcome: 220-310 Republican Electoral Votes Median Outcome: 265 Republican Electoral Votes, 273 Democratic Polls show the race tightening between Incumbent President Donald Trump (R) and former Vice President Jospeh Biden (D) in Florida, Colorado, and Michigan. Florida moves from lean republican to tossup, Colorado moves from likely to lean democrat, and Michigan moves from lean democrat to tossup.
Trump's lead over Biden in Nevada by 2 has switched to Biden leading Trump by 3, moving Nevada fom tossup to lean democrat. Probable Outcome: 220-310 Republican Electoral Votes median Outcome: 265 Republican Electoral Votes, 273 Democratic |
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January 2021
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