Dr. Mike correctly forecast 26/29 senate races with 4 races left as tossups. Democrats won all 4 tossups: Arizona, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Washington as well as 3 of the lean or likely republican races: Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. Democrats picked up Pennsylvania for a net Democrat gain of 1 senator.
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Former football running back Herschel Walker (R) leads Incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock (D) by 3 (with 2% undecided), moving Georgia from likely to lean republican.
Incumbent Senator Theodore Budd (R) leads former Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D) by 6 (with 1% undecided), moving North Carolina from lean to likely republican. Former Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) leads Incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D) by 6 (with 5% undecided), moving Nevada from lean to likely republican. Incumbent Senator Charles Grassley (R) leads retired Vice Admiral Michael Franken by 12 (with 2% undecided) moving Iowa from likely to solid republican. Probable Outcome 52-56 Republican. Mean Outcome 54 Republican (gain of 4), 44 Democrat (loss of 4), 2 Independent Incumbent Senator Richard Blumenthal (D) leads businesswoman Leora Levy (R) by 13 with 5% still undecided, moving Connecticut from lean to likely democrat.
Incumbent Senator Patricia Murray (D) leads Tiffany Smiley (R) by 2, moving Washington from lean democrat to tossup. James David Vance (R) leads U.S. Representative Timothy Ryan (D) by 8, moving Ohio from lean to likely republican. Probable Outcome 52-56 Republican. Mean Outcome 54 Republican (gain of 4), 44 Democrat (loss of 4), 2 Independent Incumbent Senator Ronald Wyden (D) leads former Senate nominee Jo Rae Perkins (R) Tudor Dixon (R) by 11 with 7% undecided, moving Oregon from solid to likely democrat.
Incumbent Senator Ladda Tammy Duckworh (D) leads Kathy Salvi (R) by 10 with 8% undecided, moving Illinois from likely to lean democrat. Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) leads Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman (D) by 3, moving Pennslyvnia from tossup to lean republican. Former football running back Herschel Walker (R) leads Incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock (D) by 5 with 4% undecided, moving Georgia from lean to likely republican. Incumbent Senator Macro Rubio (R) leads U.S. Representative Val Demings (D) by 11 with 3% undecided, moving Florida from likely to solid republican. Probable Outcome 52-55 Republican. Mean Outcome 53.5 Republican (gain of 3.5), 44.5 Democrat (loss of 3.5), 2 Independent Incumbent Senator Patricia Murray (D) leads Tiffany Smiley (R) by 9 (with 7% still undecided), moving Washington from tossup to lean democrat.
Incumbent Senator Margaret Hassan (D) leads retired Brigadier General Donald Bolduc (R) by 3, moving New Hampshire from likely democrat to tossup. Incumbent Senator Ronald Johnson (R) leads Lieutenant Governor Jesse Mandela Barnes (D) by 6 (with 1% undecided), moving Wisconsin from tossup to likely republican. Probable Outcome 51-55 Republican. Mean Outcome 53 Republican (gain of 3), 45 Democrat (loss of 3), 2 Independent Incumbent Senator Charles Grassley (R) leads retired Admiral Michael Franken (D) by 11, moving Iowa from solid to likely republican.
U.S. Representative Peter Welch (D) leads retired Army Officer Gerald Malloy (R) by 7, moving Vermont from solid to likely democrat. Incumbent Senator Margaret Hassan (D) now leads retired General Donald Bolduc (R) by 11, moving New Hampshire from tossup to likely democrat. Lt. Governor John Fetterman (D) leads Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) by 2, moving Pennsylvania from lean democrat to tossup. Incumbent Senator Patricia Murray (D) leads Nurse Tiffany Smiley (R) by 3, moving Washington from lean democrat to tossup. Probable Outcome 50-55 Republican. Mean Outcome 52.5 Republican (gain of 2.5), 45.5 Democrat (loss of 2.5), 2 Independent Lieutenant Governor Jesse Mandela Barnes (D) now leads Incumbent Senator Ronald Johnson (R) by 2, moving Wisconsin from lean republican to tossup.
Incumbent Senator Ladda Tammy Duckworth (D) is leading Attorney Kathy Salvi (R) by 9 with 20% undecided, moving Illinois from solid to likely democrat. Incumbent Senator Patricia Murray (D) now leads Nurse Tiffany Smiley (R) by 6, moving Washington from likely to lean democrat. Incumbent Senator Michael Bennet (D) is now leading CEO John O’Dea (R) by 5, moving Colorado from lean democrat to tossup. Former Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) is now leading Incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D) by 3, moving Nevada from tossup to lean republican. Attorney General Erich Schmitt (R) now leads heiress Trudy Bush Veltnine (D) by 11, moving Missouri from likely to solid republican. Probable Outcome 50-54 Republican. Mean Outcome 52 Republican (gain of 2), 46 Democrat (loss of 2), 2 Independent Incumbent Senator Richard Blumenthal (D) leads businesswoman Leora Levy (R) by 12 with 22% still undecided, moving Connecticut from solid to lean democrat.
Attorney General Eric Schmitt (R) leads heiress Trudy Busch Valentine (D) by only 6, moving Missouri from solid to likely republican. Former running back Herschel Walker (R) now leads incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock (D) by 1, moving Georgia from likely to lean republican. U.S. Representative Theodore Budd (R) leads Justice Cheri Beasley (D) by 3, moving North Carolina from likely to lean republican. Incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D) leads former Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) by 3, moving Nevada from lean republican to tossup. Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman (D) leads surgeon Mehmet Oz (R) by 6-11, moving Pennsylvania from tossup to lean democrat. Probable Outcome 50-53 Republican. Mean Outcome 51.5 Republican (gain of 1.5), 46.5 Democrat (loss of 1.5), 2 Independent Former Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) now leads incumbent Senator Catherine Masto (D) by 3, moving Nevada from tossup to lean republican.
Probable Outcome 51-54 Republican. Mean Outcome 52.5 Republican (gain of 2.5), 45.5 Democrat (loss of 2.5), 2 Independent Former football running back Herschel Walker (R) leads Incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock (D) by 4 with 6% undecided (the overwhelming majority of undecideds normally end up supporting the challenger and based on previous polls they are going to Walker by at least 2:1), moving Georgia from lean to likely republican.
U.S. Representative Theodore Budd (R) now leads Former North Carolina Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D) by 7, moving North Carolina from lean to likely republican. Former Senate candidate Alan Gross (I) running for the U.S. House of Representatives moves Alaska from likely to solid republican. Probable Outcome 50-54 Republican Senators. Mean Outcome 52 Republican (gain of 2), 46 Democrat (loss of 2), 2 Independent |
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December 2022
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