The day before the 2020 elections, Dr. Mike correctly forecast 29/31 senator races (Republicans lost both runoffs in Georgia on January 5, 2021). The 4 races left as tossup split 2 Republican and 2 Democrat.
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The day before the 2020 elections, Dr. Mike correctly forecast 28/28 senator races (forecast 31 races of which 3 remain to be called). 4 races were left as tossup.
Alaska was forecast as likely republican and Incumbent Senator Daniel Sullivan (R) is leading 63.1 to 31.8 with 50% of the votes still being counted. Incumbent Senator Perdue (R) is leading in Georgia with 50.8% of the vote and he will either be declared the winner or the race will go to a runoff. The Georgia special election moves to a runoff between Incumbent Senator Kelly Loeffler (R) and Reverend Raphael Warnock (D) as expected. Almost all of the republican vote split between Loeffler (R) (26.5%) and U.S. Representative Doug Collins (20.4%), and no democrat other than Warnock (D) (31.9%) received more than 7% of the vote. Interestingly the total vote of all republican candidates was 49.2% and the total vote of democratic candidates was 49.4%. Incumbent Dan Sullivan (R)’s lead over Al Gross (I), the son of a former Alaska Attorney General, has shrunk to as little as 3, Alaska moves from solid to likely republican.
Incumbent Senator Tina Smith’s (D) lead over former U.S. Representative Jason Lewis (R) has increased to 3 points, Minnesota moves back to lean democrat from tossup. Probable Outcome: 50-54 Republican Senators. Median Outcome: 52 Republican (loss of 1), 48 Democrat (gain of 1), 2 Independent. Incumbent Senator David Perdue's (R) lead over former nominee for U.S. Representative John Ossoff (D) has shrunk to 3, Georgia moves from likely to lean republican.
U.S. Representative Roger Marshall (R) leads state senator Barbara Bollier (D) by 12, Kansas moves from lean to likely republican. Incumbent Senator Tina Smith’s (D) lead over former U.S. Representative Jason Lewis (R) has shrunk to 1 point, Minnesota moves from lean democrat to tossup. Probable Outcome: 50-55 Republican Senators. Median Outcome: 52.5 Republican (loss of 0.5), 46.5 Democrat (gain of 0.5), 2 Independent. Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon (D) leads Incumbent Senator Susan Collins (R) by 5, Maine moves from lean republican to tossup.
Retired astronaut Mark Kelly's (D) lead over Incumbent Senator Martha McSally (R) has shrunk to 1 point, Arizona moves from lean democrat to tossup. Incumbent Senator Gary Peters (D) leads 2018 Senate nominee John James (R) by 2, Michigan moves from lean democrat to tossup. Probable Outcome: 50-54 Republican Senators. Median Outcome: 52 Republican (loss of 1), 46 Democrat (gain of 1), 2 Independent. Incumbent Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D) leads 2 likely opponents: Dan Bolduc (R) and Corky Messner (R) by 54-35, New Hampshire moves from likely to solid democrat.
U.S. Representative Roger Marshall (R) leads State Senator Barba Bollier by only 2, Kansas moves from likely to lean republican. The Georgia special election will almost certainly end in a run off. Incumbent Senator Kelly Loeffler (R) leads the 2 strongest democrats by 7-11 in polling for the runoff and there is a strong chance the runoff will be between her and fellow republican Doug Collins. Georgia moves from lean to likely republican. Incumbent Senator Tina Smith (D) leads former U.S. Representative Jason Lewis (R) by 3, Minnesota moves from likely to lean democrat. Probable Outcome: 51-52 Republican Senators. Median Outcome: 51.5 Republican (loss of 1.5), 46.5 Democrat (gain of 1.5), 2 Independent. Incumbent Senator Lindsey Graham (R)’s lead against former South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Jaime Harrison (D) has shrunk to 7, moving South Carolina from solid to likely republican.
Businesswoman Theresa Greenfield (D) now leads Incumbent Senator Joni Ernst (R) by 3, moving Iowa from likely to lean republican. The percentage of undecided votes shrunk in Michigan (from 29 to 15), while Incumbent Gary Peter (D)’s lead over 2018 Senate Nominee John James (R) has stayed around 10. Michigan moves from tossup to lean democrat. Probable Outcome: 51-52 Republican Senators. Median Outcome: 51.5 Republican (loss of 1.5), 46.5 Democrat (gain of 1.5), 2 Independent Former Lake County sheriff Mark Curran (R) is a weak candidate in Illinois, Illinois moves from likely to solid democrat.
Governor Steve Bullock (D) entering the senate race in Montana moves it from solid to lean republican. Former State Senator Cal Cunningham (D) now leads Incumbent Thom Tillis (R) by 2 points in North Carolina, moving the race from likely republican to tossup. Probable Outcome: 51-53 Republican Senators. Median Outcome: 52 Republican (loss of 1), 46 Democrat (gain of 1), 2 Independent Retired Astronaut Mark Kelly (D) leads Incumbent Senator Martha McSally (R) by 4-12, moving Arizona from tossup to lean democrat.
Probable Outcome: 52-53 Republican Senators. Median Outcome: 52.5 Republican (loss of 0.5), 45.5 Democrat (gain of 0.5), 2 Independent Georgia Senator Johnny Isakson (R) retired (effective December 31) due to health reasons. Governor Brian Kemp (R) appointed Businesswoman Kelly Loeffler (R) as a replacement with a special election November 2020 (election for full 6 year term in 2022). With Loeffler’s lack of political experience (the Governor had several U.S. representatives, and statewide officeholders to choose from) and problems getting conservative support, Georgia moves from likely to lean republican due to the increased uncertainty.
Probable Outcome: 52-54 Republican Senators. Median Outcome: 53 Republican (gain of 0), 45 Democrat (loss of 0), 2 Independent |
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