Dr. Mike correctly forecast 11/11 governor races with 0 races left as tossups (last map update was in August). U.S. Representative Gregory Giantforte (R) winning the open race in Montana results in a net republican gain of 1 governor. The closest governor race was in North Carolina where the incumbent governor Roy Cooper (D) won by 4.4%, which I had listed as lean democrat.
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Incumbent Governor Roy Cooper (D) now has a 13 point lead (11 undecided) over Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest (R), North Carolina moves from tossup to lean democrat.
U.S. Representative Greg Giantforte (R) now leads Lieutenant Governor Mike Cooney (D) by 9, Montana moves from lean to likely republican. Probable Outcome: 27 Republican Governors. Median Outcome: 27 Republican (gain of 1), 23 Democrat (loss of 1). Incumbent Governor Phil Scott (R) now leads likely democrat challengers by more than 35, Vermont moves from likely to solid republican.
Incumbent Governor Roy Cooper (D)'s lead over Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest (R) has shrunk to 3, North Carolina moves from lean democrat to tossup. Probable Outcome: 27 Republican Governors. Median Outcome: 27.5 Republican (gain of 1.5), 22.5 Democrat (loss of 1.5) Weak challengers in Washington, Indiana, West Virginia, and New Hampshire move Washington from likely to solid democrat and Indiana, West Virginia, and New Hampshire from likely to solid republican.
Probable Outcome: 27 Republican Governors. Median Outcome: 27 Republican (gain of 1), 23 Democrat (loss of 1) Updated totals to reflect 2019 Governors Results.
Probable Outcome: 27 Republican Governors. Median Outcome: 27 Republican (gain of 1), 23 Democrat (loss of 1) Incumbent Governor Roy Cooper's (D) now leads Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest (R) 48 to 36, North Carolina moves from tossup to lean democrat.
Probable Outcome: 28 Republican Governors. Median Outcome: 28 Republican (gain of 1), 22 Democrat (loss of 1) Potential republican field to replace retiring Incumbent Governor Steve Bullock (D) looks much stronger than the potential democratic field, Montana moves from tossup to lean republican.
Probable Outcome: 28-30 Republican Governors. Median Outcome: 29 Republican (gain of 1.5), 21 Democrat (loss of 1.5) Governor Jim Justice switched parties from democrat to republican, moving the race from lean democrat to likely republican.
Kate Brown (D) has an approval rating over 50 (58%), moving Oregon from lean to likely democrat.
Chris Sununu (R) has an approval rating over 50 (55%), moving New Hampshire from tossup to likely republican. |
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November 2020
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