The day before the 2018 elections, Dr. Mike correctly forecast 29/30 (including the special elections in Minnesota and Mississippi) senator races (gave the republican candidate a slight advantage in Arizona). 5 races were left as tossups of which Republicans won 1 and Democrats won 4. Median prediction of 55.5 republican and 42.5 democratic senators, final result of 53 republican and 45 democratic senators.
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Incumbent Senator Jon Tester (D) is now under 50% and leading Auditor Matt Rosendale (R) by 6 (with 8% undecided), moving Montana from lean democrat to tossup.
Probable Outcome: 53-58 Republican Senators. Median Outcome: 55.5 Republican (gain of 4.5), 42.5 Democrat, 2 Independent U.S. Representative Kevin Cramer (R) now leads Incumbent Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D) by 9, moving North Dakota from solid to likely republican.
Incumbent Senator Ted Cruz (R) now leads U.S. Representative Beto O’Rourke (D) by 3, moving Texas from likely to lean republican. Incumbent Senator Dean Heller (R) now leads U.S. Representative Jacky Rosen (D) by 1, moving Nevada from lean republican to tossup. Incumbent Senator Jon Tester (D) now leads Auditor Matt Rosendale (R) by 8, moving Montana from tossup to lean democrat. Incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) now leads Veteran John James (R) by 13, moving Michigan from lean to likely democrat. Incumbent Senator Bob Menendez (D) is now at 51% and leads Bob Hugin by 12, moving New Jersey moves from lean to likely democrat. Incumbent Senator Amy Klobuchar (D) now leads State Representative Jim Newberger (R) by 23, Minnesota moves from likely to solid democrat (Minnesota special election remains a tossup). Incumbent Senator Angus Kaine (I) is now at 50% and leads State Senator Eric Brakey (R) by 13, moving Maine from solid to likely democrat. Incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown (D) is now under 50% and leads U.S. Representative Jim Renacci (R) by 9 (with 17% undecided) moving Ohio from likely to lean democrat. Incumbent Senator Joe Manchin (D) is now under 50% and leads State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) by 5, moving West Virginia from lean democrat to tossup U.S. Representative Martha McSally (R) now leads U.S. Representative Krysten Sinema (D) by 5, moving Arizona from tossup to lean republican. Probable Outcome: 53-57 Republican Senators. Median Outcome: 55 Republican (gain of 4), 43 Democrat (loss of 4), 2 Independent. Incumbent Senator Joe Manchin (D) is now over 50% and leading State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) by 16, West Virginia moves from tossup to lean democrat.
Former State Representative Mike Braun (R) now leads Incumbent Senator Joe Donnelly (D) by 3, Indiana moves from tossup to lean republican. U.S. Representative Kevin Cramer (R) now leads Incumbent Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D) by 16, North Dakota moves from likely to solid republican Probable Outcome: 53-57 Republican Senators. Median Outcome: 55 Republican (gain of 4), 43 Democrat, 2 Independent Incumbent Senator Joe Donnelly (D now leads former State Representative Mike Braun (R) by 4, Indiana: moves from lean republican to tossup.
Incumbent Senator Amy Klobuchar (D) has dropped from 60 to 50% support (and her lead over State Representative Jim Newberger (R) has shrunk from 18 to 9%), moving Minnesota from solid to likely democrat. Incumbent Senator Tina Smith (D) now leads State Senator Karin Housley (R) by 3, Minnesota Special Election moves from likely democrat to tossup. Incumbent Senator Dean Heller (R) now leads U.S. Representative Jacky Rosen (D) by 7, Nevada moves from tossup to lean republican. Requested Summary: Probable Outcome: 52-58 Republican Senators. Median Outcome: 55 Republican (gain of 4), 43 Democrat, 2 Independent. Incumbent Senators are now at 54% in Ohio and the Minnesota Special Election, moving both states from lean to likely democrat.
Incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow (D)'s lead has dropped from 18 to 9 (with 8% undecided) over John James (R), Michigan moves from solid to lean democrat. Incumbent Senator Tom Carper (D) is now polling at 61%, moving Delaware from likely to solid democrat.
U.S. Representative Marsha Blackburn (R) is now leading former governor Phil Bredesen (D) by 8, Tennessee moves from tossup to likely republican. Incumbent Democrat Senators in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin are now over 50% with growing leads over their opponents, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin move from lean to likely democrat.
Incumbent Senator Jon Tester (D) is now under 50% with a shrinking lead and a growing number of undecided voters, Montana moves from lean democrat to tossup. Former State Representative Mike Braun (R) is leading Incumbent Senator Joe Donnelly (D) by 2, Indiana moves from tossup to lean Republican. Incumbent Senator Bill Nelson (D) is now tied with Governor Rick Scott (R), Florida moves from likely republican to tossup.
Incumbent Senator Joe Donnelly (D) leads former State Representative Mike Braun (R) by 3, Indiana moves from lean republican to tossup. Former Governor Phil Bredesen (D) leads U.S. Representative Marsha Blackburn (R) by 2, Tennessee moves from lean republican to tossup. Incumbent Senator Tim Kaine (D) leads former Governor candidate Corey Stewart (R) by 4, Virginia moves from likely to lean democrat. U.S. Representative Martha McSally (R) leads U.S. Representative Krysten Sinema (D) by 1. Arizona moves from lean democrat to tossup. Incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) is now leading State Senator Leah Vukmir (R) by 8, Wisconsin moves from tossup to lean democrat.
Incumbent Senator Bob Casey Jr. (D) is now under 50%, leading U.S. Representative Lou Barietta (R) by 13% with a growing 19% undecided, Pennsylvania moves from likely to lean democrat. Incumbent Senator Joe Manchin (D) is now under 50%, leading State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) by 8% with a growing 16% undecided, West Virginia moves from lean democrat to tossup. |