Dr. Mike correctly forecast 2/2 governor races with 1 race left as a tossup (Kentucky). Democrat incumbent won in Kentucky and republican incumbent won in Mississippi, while a republican won the open race in Louisiana, for a net republican gain of 1 governor.
Incumbent Governor Jonathon Reeves (R) leads Public Service Commission member Brandon Presley (D) by 8 (with 6% undecided), moving Mississippi from solid to likely republican.
Attorney General Jeffrey Landry (R) was expected to win a runoff for governor of Louisiana scheduled November 18, however Landry (R) won outright on October 14 with a 52% majority of the vote. Landry (R)'s unexpectedly large victory (his closest of several opponents was Secretary of Transportation and Development Shawn Wilson (D) at 26%) is a republican gain in Louisiana. Probable Outcome: 27-28 Republican Governors. Median Outcome: 27.5 Republican (gain of 1.5). 22.5 Democrat (loss of 1.5). Incumbent Governor Andrew Beshear (D) and Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R) are now tied, moving Kentucky from lean democrat to tossup.
Probable Outcome: 27-28 Republican Governors. Median Outcome: 27.5 Republican (gain of 1.5). 22.5 Democrat (loss of 1.5). Attorney General Jeffrey Landry (R) leads former Secretary of Transportation and Development Shawn Wilson 36 to 18 in a jungle primary with 29% undecided and another 12% split up among other republicans, moving Louisiana from lean to likely republican.
Probable Outcome: 27 Republican Governors. Median Outcome: 27 Republican (gain of 1). 23 Democrat (loss of 1). Updated map to reflect 2022 Results.
Probable Outcome: 27 Republican Governors. Median Outcome: 27 Republican (gain of 1). 23 Democrat (loss of 1). Updated map to reflect 2021 Results.
Probable Outcome: 29-34 Republican Governors (28-33 in 2022). Median Outcome: 31.5 Republican (gain of 1). 18.5 Democrat (loss of 1). Updated totals to reflect 2020 results.
Probable Outcome: 28-31 Republican Governors (27-30 in 2022). Median Outcome: 29.5 Republican (gain of 1), 20.5 Democrat (loss of 1). First map of 2023 Governor Races.
Louisiana will have an open race starting as lean republican. The other 2 states will have incumbents running for re-election and start as lean democrat in Kentucky and solid republican in Mississippi. Probable Outcome: 28-31 Republican Governors. Median Outcome: 29.5 Republican (gain of 1). 20.5 Democrat (loss of 1). |
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November 2023
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