The day before the 2018 elections, Dr. Mike correctly forecast 29/30 governor races (gave the democratic candidate a slight advantage in Ohio). 6 races were left as tossups of which Republicans won 2 and Democrats won 4. Median prediction of 27 republican and 23 democratic governors, final result of 27 republican and 23 democratic governors.
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State Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) now leads Steve Sisolak (D) by 1, moving Nevada from lean republican to tossup.
Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) now leads former Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) by 12, moving Georgia from tossup to likely republican. Probable Outcome: 24-30 Republican Governors. Median Outcome: 27 Republican (loss of 6), 23 Democrat (gain of 7), 0 Independent (loss of 1). Kevin Stitt (R) now leads former Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D) by 4, moving Oklahoma from likely to lean republican.
Former State Attorney General and State Treasurer Richard Cordray (D) now leads State Attorney General Mike DeWine (R) by 5, moving Ohio from lean republican to lean democrat. Ned Lamont (D) now leads Bob Stefanowski (R) by 9, moving Connecticut from lean to likely democrat. Former Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer (D) now leads State Attorney General Bill Schuette (R) by 11, moving Michigan from lean to likely democrat. Incumbent Governor Tom Wolf is now at 58% and leads Scott Wagner by 21, moving Pennsylvania from lean to solid democrat. U.S. Representative Jared Polis (D) now leads State Treasurer Walker Stapleton (R) by 5, moving Colorado from likely to lean democrat. U.S. Representative Kristi Noem (R) now leads Minority Leader Billie Sutton by 3, moving South Dakota from tossup to lean republican. Incumbent Governor Doug Ducey (R) now leads David Garcia (D) by 19, moving Arizona from likely to solid republican. Probable Outcome: 24-30 Republican Governors. Median Outcome: 27 Republican (loss of 6), 23 Democrat (gain of 7), 0 Independent (loss of 1). Only 1 poll in South Dakota not commissioned by 1 of the candidates: U.S. Representative Kristi Noem (R) and Minority Leader Billie Sutton (D) are tied, South Dakota moves from solid republican to tossup.
Former State Senator Mike Dunleavy (R) now leads by 4 against 1 remaining opponent former U.S. Senator Mark Begich (D), Alaska moves from likely to lean republican. U.S. Representative Jared Pollis (D) now leads State Treasurer Walker Stapleton (R) by 12, Colorado moves from lean to likely democrat. Ned Lamont (D) now leads Bob Stefanowski (R) by 4, Connecticut moves from likely to lean democrat. Former Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer (D) now leads State Attorney General Bill Schuette (R) by 5, Michigan moves from likely to lean democrat. Probable Outcome: 24-31 Republican Governors. Median Outcome: 27.5 Republican (loss of 5.5), 21.5 Democrat. Incumbent Governor Bill Walker (I) has dropped out of the race and endorsed former U.S. Senator Mark Begich (D). Former State Senator Mike Dunleavy (R) was leading by 21 against both opponents. Now Mike Dunleavy (R) leads by 7 against only 1 opponent, Alaska stays likely republican.
Incumbent Governor Tom Wolf (D) is now under 50% support, with 16% undecided, moving Pennsylvania from likely to lean democrat. Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine (R) now leads by 3 against former Director, Attorney General, and Treasurer Richard Cordray (D), Ohio moves from tossup to lean republican. Incumbent Governor Chris Sununu (R) now leads by 11 against former State Senator (D) Molly Kelly, New Hampshire moves from lean to likely republican. Requested Summary: Probable Outcome: 25-31 Republican Governors. Median Outcome: 28 Republican (loss of 5), 22 Democrat. Maine Attorney General Janet Mills (D) is now leading Shawn Moody (R) by 8, moving Maine from tossup to likely democrat.
Incumbent Governor Scott Walker (R) is now leading Superintendent Toney Evers by 1, Wisonsin moves from likely democrat to tossup. Kevin Stitt (R) is now leading former Oklahoma Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D) by 6, Oklahoma moves from lean to likely republican. Former State Senator Mike Dunleavy (R) is now leading Incumbent Governor Bill Walker (I) by 21, Alaska moves from lean to likely Republican.
Arizona: Incumbent Governor Doug Ducey (R) is now leading David Garcia (D) by 18, Arizona moves from tossup to likely republican. Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D) is leading former U.S. Representative Ron DeSantis (R) by 2, Florida moves from lean democrat to tossup. The only officially non-partisan poll out on Kansas Governor shows Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) up only by 1 point over State Senator Laura Kelly (D), Kansas moves from solid republican to tossup. Incumbent Governor Chris Sununu (R) is leading former State Senator Molly Kelly (D) by 5, New Hampshire moves from likely to lean republican. Ohio Attorney General Mike Dewine (R) is leading former Ohio Attorney General (and also former Ohio State Treasurer and former Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau) Richard Cordray (D) by 1, Ohio moves from lean republican to tossup. State Superintendent Tony Evers (D) is leading Incumbet Scott Walker (R) by 7, Wisconsin moves from lean to likely democrat. J.B. Pritzer (D) is leading Incumbent Governor Bruce Rauner (R) by 22, Illinois moves from likely to solid democrat. Kevin Stitt (R) leads former Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D) by 3, Oklahoma moves from likely to lean republican
Fred Hubbel (D) leads Incumbent Governor Kim Reynolds (R) by 2, Iowa moves from lean republican to tossup Democratic candidates are now leading in Florida and Wisconsin by 4-5, Florida and Wisconsin move from tossup to lean democrat. Democratic candidates are now leading in Minnesota, New Mexico, and Rhode Island by 7-9, Minnesota moves from lean to likely democrat, and New Mexico and Rhode Island move from tossup to likely democrat. California: Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom (D) leads John Cox (R) by 4-12 points, California moves from solid to likely democrat. Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) Nevada now leads Steve Sisolak (D) by 3, Nevada moves from tossup to lean republican. Maryland: Incumbent Governor Larry Hogan (R) is now leading former NAACP President Ben Jealous (D) by 22, Maryland moves from likely to solid republican. State Superintendent Toney Evers (D) now leads Incumbent Governor Scott Walker (R) by 2, Wisconsin moves from lean republican to tossup.
U.S. Representative Tim Walz (D) now leads Former State Representative Jeff Johnson (R) by 5, Minnesota moves from tossup to lean democrat. 2006 Senate Nominee Ned Lamont (D) now leads Businessman Bob Stefanowski (R) by 9, Connecticut moves from tossup to likely democrat. U.S. Representative Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is now leading U.S. Representative Steve Pearce (R) by 2, New Mexico moves from likely democrat to tossup.
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December 2018
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