Incumbent Senator Krysten Sinema (D) changing party from democrat to indepent moves Arizona from lean democrat to tossup.
Strong republican performance in Florida statewide races in 2022 and a weak democrat field move Florida from tossup to likely republican.
Probable Outcome: 49-52 Republican Senators.
Median Outcome: 50.5 Republican (gain of 1.5), 47 Democrat (loss of 1.0), 2.5 Independent (loss of 0.5)
Strong republican performance in Florida statewide races in 2022 and a weak democrat field move Florida from tossup to likely republican.
Probable Outcome: 49-52 Republican Senators.
Median Outcome: 50.5 Republican (gain of 1.5), 47 Democrat (loss of 1.0), 2.5 Independent (loss of 0.5)