Incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom's (D)'s 2 previous statewide victories at 62% (winning office in 2018 and surviving recall in 2021), combined with a lack of very strong republican candidates, move California from likely to solid democrat.
Incumbent Governor Jay Robert Pritzker (D) is polling at 55% and showing leads of more than 20 against potential opponents, moving Illinois from likely to solid democrat.
Incumbent Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is polling under 50% with a large amount of undecideds, moving New Mexico from likely to lean democrat.
Probable Outcome 28-33 Republican Governors.
Mean Outcome 30.5 Republican (gain of 2.5), 19.5 Democrat (loss of 2.5)
Incumbent Governor Jay Robert Pritzker (D) is polling at 55% and showing leads of more than 20 against potential opponents, moving Illinois from likely to solid democrat.
Incumbent Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is polling under 50% with a large amount of undecideds, moving New Mexico from likely to lean democrat.
Probable Outcome 28-33 Republican Governors.
Mean Outcome 30.5 Republican (gain of 2.5), 19.5 Democrat (loss of 2.5)