Dr. Mike correctly forecast 28/30 governor races with 6 races left as tossups. Democrats won all 6 tossups: Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, and Wisconsin as well as 2 of the lean republican races: Oregon and Arizona. Democrats picked up Maryland, Massachusetts, and Arizona, while Republicans picked up Nevada for a net Democrat gain of 2 governors.
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Former news anchor Kari Lake (R) leads Secretary of State Kathleen Hobbs (D) by 3, moving Arizona from solid to lean republican.
Incumbent Governor Laura Kelly (D) leads Attorney General Derek Schmidt (R) by 3 (with 4% undecided), moving Kansas from lean republican to tossup. Incumbent Governor Jared Polis (D) is now leading University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl (R) by 7 (with 3% undecided), moving Colorado from lean to likely democrat. Probable Outcome 28-34 Republican. Mean Outcome 31 Republican (gain of 3), 19 Democrat (loss of 3). Incumbent Governor Ronald DeSantis (R) leads U.S. Representative and former Governor Charles Christ (D) by 14, moving Florida from likely to solid republican.
Former news anchor Kari Lake (R) leads Secretary of State Kathleen Hobbs (D) by 11, moving Arizona from lean to solid republican. Probable Outcome 29-34 Republican. Mean Outcome 31.5 Republican (gain of 3.5), 18.5 Democrat (loss of 3.5). Incumbent Governor Michael Dunleavy (R) leads former representative Leslie Gara (D), former governor William Walker (I), and Mayor Charlie Pierce (R) with 43 to 28, 21, and 7. Uncertainties in the ranked choice voting system in Alaska (second and third pick voting indicate a final margin of around 53-47) move the race from solid to likely republican.
Incumbent Governor Gretchen Whiter (D) now leads Tudor Dixon (R) by 2, moving Michigan from lean democrat to tossup. Probable Outcome 29-34 Republican. Mean Outcome 31.5 Republican (gain of 3.5), 18.5 Democrat (loss of 3.5). Incumbent Governor Ronald DeSantis (R) leads U.S. Representative Charles Christ (D) by 10 (with 6% undecided), moving Florida from solid to likely republican.
In the only Maryland Governor polls for the general election, former CEO Westley Moore (D) leads State Delegate Daniel Cox (R) by 22 and 32, moving Maryland from tossup to solid democrat. Incumbent Governor Janet Mills (D) leads former Governor Paul LePage (R) by 11 (with 10% undecided), moving Maine from tossup to lean democrat. Incumbent Governor Jared Polis (D) is now leading University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl (R) by 8 (with 6% undecided), moving Colorado from tossup to lean democrat. Attorney General Joshua Shapiro (D) leads State Senator Douglas Mastriano (R) by 9, moving Pennsylvania from tossup to lean democrat. Incumbent Governor Daniel McKee (D) leads Ashley Kalus (R) by 10 (with 14% undecided), moving Rhode Island from likely to lean democrat. Incumbent Governor Kathleen Hochul (D) leads U.S. Representative Lee Zeldin by 2, moving New York from lean democrat to tossup. Oregon Minority Leader Christine Drazan (R) leads former Speaker Tina Kotek (D) by 6, moving Oregon from tossup to lean republican. Probable Outcome 29-33 Republican. Mean Outcome 31 Republican (gain of 3), 19 Democrat (loss of 3) Incumbent Governor Henry McMaster (R) leads former U.S. Representative Joseph Cunningham (D) by 8 with 4% undecided, moving South Carolina from solid to likely republican.
Incumbent Governor Kathleen Hochul (D) leads U.S. Representative Lee Zeldin by 6 with 8% undecided, moving New York from solid to lean democrat. Incumbent Governor Edward Lamont (D) leads 2018 Nominee for Governor Robert Stefanowski (R) by 9 with 9% undecided, moving Connecticut from likely to lean democrat. Former news anchor Kari Lake (R) leads Secretary of State Kathleen Hobbs (D) by 4, moving Arizona from tossup to lean republican Probable Outcome 28-36 Republican. Mean Outcome 32 Republican (gain of 4), 18 Democrat (loss of 4) Incumbent Governor Kathleen Hochul (D) now leads U.S. Representative Lee Zeldin (R) by 24, moving New York from lean to solid democrat.
Incumbent Governor Jared Polis (D) is now leading University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl (R) by 5, moving Colorado from likely democrat to tossup. Republican Incumbent Governors are now showing leads of 15 in Iowa, 16 in Ohio, and 44 in Vermont, moving those 3 states from likely to solid republican. Probable Outcome 27-36 Republican. Mean Outcome 31.5 Republican (gain of 3.5), 18.5 Democrat (loss of 3.5) Incumbent Governor Anthony Evers (D) leads 3 possible republican opponents by at least 4 points, moving Wisconsin from lean republican to tossup.
Incumbent Governor Gretchen Whiter (D) leads 5 possible republican primary opponents by more than 10 points, moving Michigan from tossup to lean democrat. Attorney General Maura Healey (D) is the most likely democratic nominee and leads 2 republican primary opponents by more than 20 points, moving Massachusetts from lean to solid democrat. Incumbent Governor Jay Robert Pritzker (D) is only polling at 50%, moving Illinois from solid to likely democrat. Maine Incumbent Governor Janet Mills (D) leads former Governor Paul LePage (R) by 4, and New Mexico Incumbent Governor Michelle Lynn Lujan Grisham (D) leads former U.S. Senate nominee Mark Ronchetti (R) by 4, while Oregon Minority Leader Christine Drazan (R) is actually leading former Speaker Tina Kotek (D) in some polls. Maine, New Mexico, and Oregon move from lean democrat to tossup. Probable Outcome 27-35 Republican. Mean Outcome 31 Republican (gain of 3), 19 Democrat (loss of 3) Sheriff Joseph Lombardo (R) now leads incumbent Governor Stephen Sisolak (D) by 2, moving Nevada from tossup to lean republican.
Probable Outcome 28-33 Republican. Mean Outcome 30.5 Republican (gain of 2.5), 19.5 Democrat (loss of 2.5) Incumbent Governor Brian Kemp (R) leads former Governor Candidate Stacey Abrams (D) by 7, moving Georgia from lean to likely republican.
Incumbent Governor Christopher Sununu (R) leads State Senator Thomas Sherman by 27 (D), moving New Hampshire from likely to solid republican. Probable Outcome 27-33 Republican Governors. Mean Outcome 30 Republican (gain of 2), 20 Democrat (loss of 2) |
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November 2022
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