Incumbent Senator Robert Casey Jr. (D) leads former Bridgewater CEO David McCormick (R) by 8 (with 18% undecided), changing Pennsylvania from likely to lean democrat.
US representative Elissa Slotkin (D) leads former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) by 7, moving Michigan from tossup to lean democat.
U.S. representative Ruben Gallego (D) is tied with former governor nominee Kari Lake (R), moving Arizona from lean democrat to tossup (this state is further complicated by the incumbent senator Krysten Sinema (I) not yet declaring whether she will run for re-election which would make it a 3 way race).
Weak Democrat field in Missouri moves the state from likely to solid republican.
Probable Outcome: 50-53 Republican Senators.
Median Outcome: 51.5 Republican (gain of 2.5), 46.5 Democrat (loss of 1.5), 2 Independent (loss of 1)
US representative Elissa Slotkin (D) leads former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) by 7, moving Michigan from tossup to lean democat.
U.S. representative Ruben Gallego (D) is tied with former governor nominee Kari Lake (R), moving Arizona from lean democrat to tossup (this state is further complicated by the incumbent senator Krysten Sinema (I) not yet declaring whether she will run for re-election which would make it a 3 way race).
Weak Democrat field in Missouri moves the state from likely to solid republican.
Probable Outcome: 50-53 Republican Senators.
Median Outcome: 51.5 Republican (gain of 2.5), 46.5 Democrat (loss of 1.5), 2 Independent (loss of 1)